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Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season/Patricia
20E.PATRICIA AOI: Southeastern Mexico See above. [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] (Wanna Chat? • • ) 00:42, October 16, 2015 (UTC) : It's up to 0/50. Hopefully this will become the first named storm to be tracked from it's origin as a tropical wave! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:40, October 16, 2015 (UTC) ::: 0/70. I think this is the first high risk area not on the two day outlook since Jimena. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:45, October 17, 2015 (UTC) ::::: 10/80, yet not on the two day outlook. Odd. Anyway, this should be Patricia at some point, I expect in about 4 days. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 05:48, October 17, 2015 (UTC) ::::::This might surprise you, but this AOI was actually not part of the tropical wave, it was completely separate. Anyway, it's up to 20/80 and I believe it has a lot of potential to become Patricia. [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] (Wanna Chat? • • ) 18:03, October 17, 2015 (UTC) ::::::::Wait, really? :P Oh well. Anyway, this should still be Patricia, tropical wave or not. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 20:01, October 17, 2015 (UTC) :::::::: 97E.INVEST Invest'ed. It's got a good amount of convection right now, so it could form sooner then expected. Or it could do what Olaf did and lose all it's convection before redevloping a couple days later. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 20:29, October 17, 2015 (UTC) : 30/80. Along with large amounts of convection, a circulation is developing, and it might form in two days at this rate. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:19, October 18, 2015 (UTC) ::: Back down to 20/80, but it's slow movement near the Mexico coastline doesn't look very promising. Flooding is almost a guarantee with this one. Ryan1000 12:16, October 18, 2015 (UTC) ::: 70/90! --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 19:21, October 19, 2015 (UTC) :::: 80/90. It's satellite organization is pretty good right now. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:04, October 20, 2015 (UTC) ::::: This invest should be a depression by tomorrow or so, and it could be Patricia by tomorrow night also. It looks like a potentially major flooding threat for Mexico; thus I don't like the looks of this thing. I wouldn't be surprised if future-Patricia gets a large death toll, and possibly a good-sized damage bill once it's all said and done, due to all the potential for flooding in Central America. [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] (Wanna Chat? • • ) 01:35, October 20, 2015 (UTC) ::::: Tropical Depession Twenty-E Well, it's a tropical depression now, and the forecast doesn't look good. The forecast of a category 2 hurricane hitting Mexico means we might be seeing the most damaging storm of the year, and if it becomes stronger then forecast like many storms this year have, this could have a shot at retirement even. This is going to be a bad storm for Mexico... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:13, October 20, 2015 (UTC) :Could maybe tie the major record with 1992 as a cat 3. Get ready for Patricia, guys!!! [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] • [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'Talk']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|'Blog']] 19:35, October 20, 2015 (UTC) (forgot to sign again) Tropical Storm Patricia It's now named, and still a dangerous threat to Mexico. Hopefully it doesn't do too much damage if it insists on making landfall. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:48, October 21, 2015 (UTC) :Beat me by half a second. XD Forecast peak remains at 85 kts, but could be stronger if RI takes place (hopefully it doesn't!) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:50, October 21, 2015 (UTC) :::With Patricia now being named, 2015 now ties with 1985 (which also used this naming list) for the second-most-active Pacific hurricane season on record in terms of named storms. Only 1992 had more. We'd need 4 more storms to tie 1992, which probably won't happen since October is almost over, but still, this was an amazing year, especially for the CPac, which got twice as many named storms as the previos record most-active CPac season, 1982, did. Ryan1000 02:58, October 21, 2015 (UTC) ::::Mexico is in danger, oh noes. I hope Patricia doesn't get too strong. And these records that you've mention make this EPac season really incredibly active! It's the most active EPac season I've tracked counting ::::CPac. The CPac season this year was just crazy. [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] (Wanna Chat? • • ) 22:21, October 21, 2015 (UTC) ::::::Man, I really don't like how this thing looks on sattelite imagery. It's got white-cold cloud-tops and could explode just before making landfall near Manzanillo. This could get bad...on a side note, September 2015 is the second consecutive warmest month on record according to Dr. Jeff Masters latest blog post. Ryan1000 01:30, October 22, 2015 (UTC) Hurricane Patricia This thing is taking off very fast. The latest advisory upgraded it to a cat 1 (75/987), and it could easily be a cat 3 or even 4 before making landfall in Mexico. This could get really bad... Ryan1000 06:25, October 22, 2015 (UTC) Hopefully, this won't be a re-Odile. This one is going to lash Southern Mexico instead of Baja. The EPac's on fire!!! 12:05, October 22, 2015 (UTC) :Now a Category 2, 85 kts/973 mbar. Expected to make landfall at or near Category 4 intensity. SHIPS RI Index assesses a 95% chance of a 40-kt increase in the next 24 hours. Not good. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:57, October 22, 2015 (UTC) :::(edit conflict) Holy shit, the winds of this thing jumped 25 miles in the newest advisory, from 75 mph to 100 mph, and the pressure dropped from 987 to 973. Patricia is now a cat 2 and is forecast to become a very powerful 135 mph cat 4 before crashing ashore just north of Manzanillo. This thing is absolutely exploding right now, it has a pinhole eye on sattelite imagery and it could even become (god forbid) a cat 5 before making landfall, which would make it the first to do on Mexico's Pacific coast so since 1959, and the first one period since Dean 8 years ago. This is not good. At all. Ryan1000 15:01, October 22, 2015 (UTC) :::::This thing is intensifying insanely fast! The SHIPS model shows a 95% '''chance of a '''40 '''knot increase in the next 24 hours! It almost never predicts anything of that magnitude! That means C4 is likely, and this could be the second category 5 hurricane to make landfall in Mexico from the Pacific Ocean! Bad hurricane! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:11, October 22, 2015 (UTC) who mentioned me? anyway... HWRF shows a C5!http://prntscr.com/8u3aba though sadly it landfalls as a C3-C4 D: --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 15:34, October 22, 2015 (UTC) : The NHC also mentioned in their forecast discussion that the winds rose 50 knots in 24 hours. That's some rapid strengthening, if some serious evacuations in Mexico aren't being done right now, I shudder to think of how they'll look tomorrow morning when this makes landfall. ''Ryan1000'' 16:07, October 22, 2015 (UTC) ::: Looks like Patricia will extend the retired names streak to 3 if it keeps up this trend. I think Patricia might be THE fastest intensifying hurricane in the EPAC this year. If people don't evacuate, they're pretty doomed. And Patricia going out to sea is pretty much not a possibility at this point. If it becomes a category 5, Patricia may cause more damage then Odile did, along with more deaths. Hopefully if it has to do devestating damage to cities, people's lives are spared. And a low end category 4 landfall at this point would be a better scenario then what could happen. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:28, October 22, 2015 (UTC) :: Major Hurricane Patricia Bada BOOM, Category 4. Upped to 115 kts/958 mbar per recon reports. This is looking uglier and uglier for Mexico... --'''Dylan (Hurricane 99) 18:06, October 22, 2015 (UTC) It looks like this storm might be a cross-over. NHC has it at hurricane strength over the Texas-Mexico line. The EPac's on fire!!! 18:09, October 22, 2015 (UTC) :They don't even expect it to survive that far... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:39, October 22, 2015 (UTC) :::Category 4!? This is not just RI, it's RRI (Really Rapid Intensification!) I think Patricia has a good shot at C5 status, although hopefully that expected wind shear weakens it after that. I did NOT expect C4 already, maybe by the next full advisory at fastest. Patricia is now VERY dangerous to Mexico, and forecast to make landfall with 140 mph winds. We've also tied with 1992 this season for most major hurricanes. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:44, October 22, 2015 (UTC) :::::No hurricane162, Patricia's small circulation doesn't stand a chance against Mexico's mountains. It's remnants could bring some rain to Texas, but it won't survive to the Atlantic, no matter how much some of the models want that. :::::That being said, god damn. A 29 milibar pressure drop and 55 mph wind increase in the space of just 6 hours is downright amazing. That isn't RI, it's EI (explosive intensification). Not only have we tied 1992 for the most major hurricanes in one season, but our already record-breaking 8 category 4 hurricanes just became 9 with the newest advisory. But unlike the previous 8, this one is a serious threat to land, and I'm having a hard time finding how this isn't going to suck for Mexico. They better be rushing evacuations near or just south of Puerto Vallarta, because this thing could cause total devastation in that area by tomorrow. The official forecast brings Patricia up to 150 mph later tonight before weakening to 145 mph before landfall, but this most definitely does have a shot at cat 5 intensity before landfall, and that's my biggest fear. Ryan1000 19:32, October 22, 2015 (UTC) ::::::Holy crap! Cat 4 already! O_O It's been a while since I've seen a storm intensify that fast in the EPac. This isn't going to be good. Mexico better be preparing. leeboy100Boo! 01:42, October 23, 2015 (UTC) (forgot to log in earlier) ::::::I'm assuming the above post is Leeboy logged out, since your writing style is similar. And oh god, C4 already?! O.O Mexico should prepare for this potentally devastating storm... ::::::And I got a good nickname for this, since it comes near Halloween, and could be the Mexican equivalent of Sandy if it gets devastating enough. "Mexican Frankenstorm" [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] (Wanna Chat? • • ) 22:24, October 22, 2015 (UTC) :::::::Oh no, Patricia is now a 130 kt/934 mbar juggernaut! That dethrones Jimena as the strongest storm of the season, and the NHC notes that Patricia could become a Category 5 hurricane overnight. This could be one of the strongest landfalling storms in EPAC history. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:50, October 22, 2015 (UTC) ::::::::Well, shit. EP, 20, 2015102300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1049W, 140, 924, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 20, 1007, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, We finally get a Category 5 and it has to threaten land. Go figure! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:50, October 23, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::Raw Dvorak T# of 8.2. EIGHT POINT TWO!!!! That's higher than Haiyan!!!!! But... how?! As amazing as Patricia looks, Haiyan crushes it not only in terms of intensity, but its unbelievable satellite appearance. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:23, October 23, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::::Dr. Jeff Masters noted in his latest blog post that the 1959 Mexico hurricane could be downgraded to a strong cat 4 landfall in reanalysis. If that happens, and Patricia hits as a cat 5, it would be the first to do so in EPac history, and could be one of the worst hurricanes to ever hit Mexico's Pacific coast. Forecast peak raised to 155 mph, but unless Patricia ERC's immediately, she's a lock for cat 5 later tonight. I can't imagine how this could have a happy ending for Mexico. Hopefully everyone's evacuated by now...as an additional note, with the new advisory, the pressure from this thing dropped 53 milibars in 12 hours, almost 4.5 milibars per hour. That's got to be one of the fastest intensification rates from any Pacific hurricane. Ever. Felix '07, which was the last Atlantic cat 5 and holds the world record for the time it took to go from depression at formation to cat 5 (51 hours), deepened at 3.4 milibars per hour. Ryan1000 01:44, October 23, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::HOW!?!?!?!?!?!?!? How is it higher than HAIYAN!?! This is impressive! Stay away from land please. :( leeboy100Boo! 01:42, October 23, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::Dear God. 150 MPH. I hope everyone has evacuated. I'm going to bed now, I hope this thing is much weaker when I get back on here. leeboy100Boo! 01:49, October 23, 2015 (UTC) Category 5 Hurricane Patricia Down to 140/924, raw T# at 8.3 and still undergoing explosive deepening as we speak. Hopefully Manzanillo and PV will be spared the worst of the storm. At this rate we could seeing a serious contender to Linda and Rick's record, maybe even a sub-900mb hurricane. If an ERC doesn't occur soon we could be seeing a category 5 at landfall. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 02:21, October 23, 2015 (UTC) :This isn't stronger than Haiyan. ADT is different in the WHEM then the EHEM. Also, slight changes in intensity won't due much damage wise at this point since the RMW is small. Still, this storm is incredible, almost a rival to Rick 09. I'd estimate 150 knots now. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 02:38, October 23, 2015 (UTC) ::Patricia is now a cat 5.Mexico is in really big trouble. Patricia might get retired if it hit at major intensity.Allanjeffs 02:41, October 23, 2015 (UTC) :::NHC confirmed. Now at 160 mph and 924 mbars, and since it's continuing to explode, Patricia could even rival the intensity of Rick and Linda later tonight and into tomorrow before it makes landfall. This could easily be our second category 5 landfall in Mexico from the Pacific coast. And a 64 milibar pressure drop in just 18 hours is even more incredible. In fact, the 85 knot increase in winds over the past 24 hours with Patricia has only been rivaled by one other storm in the modern sattelite era, according to the NHC's latest forecast discussion. That one other storm was none other than Linda '97, the strongest Pacific hurricane on record. 'Ryan1000' 02:47, October 23, 2015 (UTC) :::::And the first and (likely) only category 5 hurricane this season forms in the month of October! Whoa! Also, Patricia has intensified '''85 knots '(100 mph) in 24 hours! '''The NHC says this is one of the fastet intensifying storms ever in the EPAC, rivaling Linda 1997. This storm is INSANE! And now it's about to go demolish Mexico and make one of the strongest landfalls there from the EPAC on record... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:52, October 23, 2015 (UTC) ::::::Well there you have it, everyone's long awaited Category 5. This isn't good, and this list is definitely cursed. It produced Linda, Rick and now Patricia which could go down as one of the worst hurricanes in the modern era in Mexico, if not '''the worst. Owen 03:20, October 23, 2015 (UTC) 891 mbar pressure from a recon flight! If confirmed, that's Linda's record plastered. Jake52 (talk) 04:56, October 23, 2015 (UTC) : And flight level winds are 175 knots. If surface-level winds are at least 165 knots, then we're looking at the strongest pacific hurricane in recorded history right now. Ryan1000 05:07, October 23, 2015 (UTC) ::Damn that's even worse than I thought, staring into history being made. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 05:27, October 23, 2015 (UTC) NHC advisory: ' ''185 MPH WINDS! 892 MBAR PRESSURE! ' Jake52 (talk) 05:33, October 23, 2015 (UTC) : Goodbye Linda, your record has been shattered. Not only is Patricia the strongest Pacific hurricane in recorded history right now, but it is also 1) tied with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane for the 3rd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the western hemisphere, behind Gilbert and Wilma, 2) broke Hurricane Rick's record of 2009 for being the strongest October hurricane on record, 3) broke Linda's record for being the fastest intensifying tropical cyclone on record in the East Pacific, and 4) could easily be the strongest landfalling Pacific tropical cyclone on record, assuming it holds onto cat 5 intensity onto landfall. In fact, the updated NHC forecast holds it onto 185 mph winds at landfall. I'm at a loss for words right now. This is the best-looking Pacific hurricane I have ever seen, but it could be very deadly and destructive too, unfortunately...may god help the people in Mexico that are in the path of this monster. 'Ryan1000' 05:42, October 23, 2015 (UTC) : Its insane, never thought this will happen. Patricia is really hard to impress before she leaves this list, As I am almost sure she will be gone because of her damage in Mexico.Allanjeffs 06:11, October 23, 2015 (UTC) : ::Recon just returned with 888.3mb. Could be tying with Gilbert as the second strongest hurricane. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 06:16, October 23, 2015 (UTC) ::Patricia is now the strongest in terms of winds in the Epac too as its winds are now 190mph and it has a pressure of 886mb making it the 2nd strongest in the western hemisphere-Allanjeffs 07:18, October 23, 2015 (UTC) '200 MPH WINDS AND 880 MBAR PRESSURE!!! ' I...I don't even know what to say anymore. I...just... no words. None. Jake52 (talk) 07:13, October 23, 2015 (UTC) Patricia is now the strongest on record in the Western Hemisphere. If issue it will be the first time they issue an advisory using 200mph winds. I am speechless but that is Super El Niño, Many were weird out for not having acat 5 this season and now we have the strongest on record in WH.Allanjeffs 07:18, October 23, 2015 (UTC) This is such an unprecedented event. Pray for Mexico. This is potentially catastrophic. (P.S. Patricia replaced Pauline, a storm that also devastated Mexico) .Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:34, October 23, 2015 (UTC) Now the strongest in the Western Hemisphere — Patricia has already surpassed Wilma in terms of pressure by 2 millibars, and yes, Patricia is now a 200 MPH monster! Gusts now clocking up to 245 MPH!!! Man, this is worse than Haiyan... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:55, October 23, 2015 (UTC) :When I saw the update on Wikipedia, I laughed it off and thought it was vandalism. Then I checked NHC's site. What... the... hell... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 10:09, October 23, 2015 (UTC) ::NEVER, EVER have I seen something like this. Ever! Patrica is unbelievable! Looks like she will be off of the naming list for sure this year. My heart goes out to Mexico, which may have their worst hurricane EVER. Owen 10:23, October 23, 2015 (UTC) ::::When I saw the latest NHC advisory, I was at a loss for words. I just can't believe my eyes. '200 mile per hour winds?' '880 milibars in pressure?' This monster hurricane now has the highest windspeed of any tropical cyclone in recorded history. Not even Haiyan had winds this high. 880 milibars in pressure make it even stronger than Wilma, and the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the western hemisphere, ''and only 10 milibars higher than Tip in 1979. Worst of all, it's heading towards land at this intensity, and the waters will be remaining 31 degrees C up until landfall. In fact, the NHC predicts the winds to go up to 210 mph when it hits land. Holy fuck. If this gets any stronger, there are some towns in Mexico, such as Chamela, that could just be erased off the face of the earth (not that they wouldn't be already, but god damn this thing is on crack, steroids, meth, coke, and rocket fuel to get this strong). This could easily be Mexico's strongest landfalling storm in history. It's still forecast to miss puerto Vallarta to the south, but that's not enough to mean this won't be a catastrophic monster hurricane for the fishing vilages further south. This is also the fastest strengthening tropical cyclone in recorded history. At this time yesterday, we were looking at a 75 mph category 1 hurricane with 987 milibars in pressure, and now we're looking at a 200 mph hurricane with 880 milibars in pressure. 125 mph wind increase and 107 milibar pressure drop in only 24 hours. That intensification rate is unrivaled. By any other tropical cyclone. In worldwide history. Unbelievable. Just unbelievable. Ryan1000 11:16, October 23, 2015 (UTC) Patricia is just the worst hurricane i ever seen. This should be in the Guinness World Records for Strongest Hurricane. I cannot imagine how bad it would be when it reaches a whooping 210 mph! Mexico should prepare for the worst storm they will see in their history. MarcusSanchez My Own Talk Administrator of HHW 11:50, October 23, 2015 (UTC)MarcusSanchez : New advisory came out, intensity has leveled off, but it won't change much when it hits Mexico later today. God help them... Ryan1000 11:53, October 23, 2015 (UTC) : I about fainted when I saw the new advisory! Patricia is now in the top ten strongest hurricanes on Earth! '''This thing is terrible looking. No....more...words....at....all... The EPac's on fire!!! 12:52, October 23, 2015 (UTC) went to sleep when it was 924mb. then 880mb when i woke up in a new Bugatti... i nearly fainted when i saw 880mb! #OdeToQueenPatricia --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 15:06, October 23, 2015 (UTC) : Patricia reached 200 MPH!? How is that even possible!? Patricia is officially stronger than Haiyan (although Haiyan might have had 200 mph winds had it been measured), and, like Haiyan, about to make one of the strongest landfalls ever. Waking up to a 200mph monster was just stunning. Right now, Patricia still looks perfect on satellite, and it's already bringing TS force winds there. With this storm, cities are going to be erased from the map. I think we wished too much for a category 5 this season... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:18, October 23, 2015 (UTC) : no comment on what the HWRF is forecasting. view at your own risk and theres a recon flight for Patricia... --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 15:51, October 23, 2015 (UTC) : Sorry if I haven't been online in ages; I am in Denmark for my holidays. Wi-fi can be a struggle but nevermind that! I was in a Vesterbro cafe as I opened the NHC page but I literally FAINTED when I saw what's happening right now regarding Patricia! Never in my life have I seen anything like this! STAY SAFE MEXICO! blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 16:55, October 23, 2015 (UTC) ::Hurricane Hunters don't report much change in the winds, but the pressure is down slightly to '''879 mbar. Yep, we have a sub-880 mbar storm in Mexico's midst. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:01, October 23, 2015 (UTC) ::NHC reports 879 mbar, but Wikipedia says 878.4 mbar!! F*ck, this storm is unstoppable... won't wonder if Patricia ties or even surpasses Tip in terms of pressure. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:06, October 23, 2015 (UTC) :::Is it just me, or is it very, very eerie that the top 3 most intense EPAC storms in history were all from this very name list? 18 years ago was Linda, the record holder at the time. 6 years ago (last time this list was used) we had Rick, which until today was the second-strongest known EPAC hurricane. And now we have Patricia, which is EPAC's answer to Haiyan (at least in terms of intensity; one can only hope that the impacts don't compare). --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:14, October 23, 2015 (UTC) Now 879 mb by recon.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/231144.shtml Forecast stays at 200mph, gusts of 245mph. WOW! I woke up this morning and thought this was a vandalism. I went to weather underground and fainted. When I got up I threw my chair across the room. [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] • [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'Talk']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|'Blog']] 19:56, October 23, 2015 (UTC) : The only tropical cyclones that have ever had a higher intensity than Patricia right now were Tip and a few other super typhoons in the West Pacific, but none of them had winds as high as Patricia (since the winds of storms like Typhoon Nancy '61 were probably overestimated back then) and it's undoubtedly the strongest reliably measured tropical cyclone ever recorded in the western hemisphere, and thus the strongest hurricane ever recorded. But worst of all, I cannot comprehend that, out of all the basins where something like this could've formed, it's here, and going to make landfall in Mexico at that intensity. It must be one of Mexico's unluckiest times ever, even moreso that they've been hit hard by Pacific hurricanes for the past two years already (Odile last year and Manuel the year before that). This is easily going to be the strongest hurricane to hit Mexico in recorded history, and since it's likely that the 1959 hurricane will be downgraded to a cat 4 in reanalysis later this year, that would make Patricia the first and only category 5 landfall from a Pacific hurricane. Dylan, the area where Patricia will hit isn't as populated or vulnerable to storm surge as Tacloban City in the Philipines was when Haiyan struck, but the overwhelmingly powerful winds, storm surge, and extreme rainfall from Patricia, which will lead to unprecedented flooding and mudslides in Mexico's mountains, will likely cause unprescedended impacts regardless of how big the cities are in it's path. In fact, if you check out Dr. Masters latest blog post, Patricia and Haiyan have many eerie similarities. Manzanillo is far enough to Patricia's southeast to avoid the full force of the storm (category 5 winds only extend 15 miles from the center), but they will still feel some serious impacts from winds (up to minimal hurricane force in that area), storm surge, and extreme rainfall, and the smaller fishing villages and resort towns to the northwest of Manzanillo, especially La Manzanilla, home to about 2,000 people, will be wiped off the face of the earth by this monstrous hurricane tonight. Hopefully everyone has been evacuated from that area by now. Next to nothing can survive a hurricane this powerful and live to tell the tale. Ryan1000 21:00, October 23, 2015 (UTC) ::: The latest advisory just came out, it's weakened to 190 mph and 900 mbars, but that's still stronger than any other Pacific hurricane in recorded history, and Patricia will be making landfall by the next advisory or two. It actually might be just below Gilbert or Dean in terms of intensity at landfall, but a 190 mph hurricane and a 200 mph hurricane have pretty much the same end results. May god be with the people in Mexico that are in Patricia's path... Ryan1000 21:34, October 23, 2015 (UTC) :::: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS! It went up to 200 mph, became a storm revealing Tip, WHAT?!?! I have never before seen such a storm! This is the strongest TC I have ever witnessed, ever! This is just extremely powerful, and oh god, imagine the devastation it will do in Mexico!!! This is Mexico's Katrina, I'd say! No way... I never thought Patricia would go this far... this is just incredibly intense, insane, potentially catastropic, extremely dangerous. I CAN'T BELIEVE MY EYES! This literally seems like it's coming straight out of a horror movie! This is a historic tragedy in the making. Once it makes landfall... it could wipe whole towns off the face of the Earth and cause biblical damage to many areas. Oh my god...get ready for Mexico's most catastrophic hurricane ever...I'm so shocked right now!! [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] (Wanna Chat? • • ) 22:41, October 23, 2015 (UTC) :::::: The iCyclone meteorologist in La Manzanilla who is somehow still keeping the webcam from falling out should be rewarded when this thing is over with. They're getting the right-front eyewall of this armageddon storm right now, though Patricia is probably 6 hours or so from fully crossing the coast of Mexico as a cat 5. I don't know how La Manzanilla can come out of this without being completely and utterly destroyed. That goes for anywhere else in the full force path of this hurricane too. EDIT: Nvm, the webcam guy just posted that he's running for shelter now because conditions are that bad. I don't blame him, if a 190 mph hurricane was barreling my way, I'd hightail it out of there too. Ryan1000 22:51, October 23, 2015 (UTC) Landfall near Cuixmala Patricia's eye is now crossing the coast near La Manzanilla. The eye is becoming cloud-filled and cloud tops are warming, but it's still pretty certain that this is a category 5 landfall right now, which makes it only one of two EPac storms to do so on record, or possibly the only one, if the 1959 storm gets downgraded later on. The coastal storm surge and extreme winds are one thing, but I'm actually more worried about what will happen in the mountains northeast of the coast, which will squeeze all the moisture out of Patricia and cause record-breaking flooding and mudslides in some locales. Ryan1000 23:18, October 23, 2015 (UTC) : NHC's update statement just came out, it weakened quickly, but not below cat 5: ...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PATRICIA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH 165-MPH WINDS... Satellite images indicate that the center of the eye of Patricia made landfall at approximately 615 PM CDT...2315 UTC...along the coast of southwestern Mexico near Cuixmala. This position is also about 55 miles...85 km...west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The maximum winds were estimated to be 165 mph...270 km/h. SUMMARY OF 615 PM...2315 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 105.0W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES Even though the intensity dropped a bit before making landfall, a 165 mph category 5 is still an extremely dangerous hurricane. It was also closer to Cuixmala than La Manzanilla, but to be anywhere in the path of this thing would be bad. Ryan1000 23:42, October 23, 2015 (UTC) ::Intermediate advisory 35 minutes later dropped the intensity a little more to 160 mph/924mb, but not after Patricia made the strongest landfall in EPAC history, beating the 1959 storm by 5 mph even if it doesn't get downgraded. I guess it's good that it weakened 30 knots in 12 hours before making landfall, though. Currently Patricia is destroying everything in it's path, and it might be a hurricane for a few more hours before land can weaken it 80 knots. It's too much to hope for at this point that impacts in Mexico aren't too bad, but again, hopefully not too many lives lost. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:02, October 24, 2015 (UTC) ::Updated to include the 920 mbar pressure at landfall, which is the lowest for any landfalling EPac storm, on top of the highest winds. Again, since the area in Patricia's path isn't particularly populated on the coast, I'm more concerned with inland flooding from this thing, since a tremendous amount of rainfall will be occurring in the mountains just northeast of the coastline, which could cause unprecedented flooding and mudslides. Ryan1000 00:13, October 24, 2015 (UTC) ::Holy shit, I can't believe this. I got home from work and my Internet was out. So I changed it to TWC and saw that it said 190 MPH & 900 mb. I literally broke down in tears at the thought of the devestation. When I heard that it reached 200 MPH and 879 Mb, I'm pretty sure I had a heart attack. I thoght HAIYAN would be the storm of the century, AND THIS STORM GOT STRONGER THAN HAIYAN !!!!!!!!!!!!! I can't believe this is happening, God help those poor people. I really hate to say something like this, but people are going to die tonight. With how fast this thing intensified, I just know that some people were not able to leave in time. I hope that no one dies, but you just know that there will be death. I am not even going to be able to sleep tonight with the thought of that. I was having enough trouble with sleeping before Patricia formed. There is no way in hell that this thing WON'T be retired, Mexico's retirement standards won't save this thing. Sorry for my sad post. Also, sorry if I messed up anyone else's post, I'm typing this on my PS4, because my computer still won't work. leeboy100Boo! 01:13, October 24, 2015 (UTC) :::I know, it is just so unbelievable that we just saw a storm get stronger than Haiyan. Potential damage from Patricia is likely to be great enough for it to get retired, as like you said, there is absolutely no way in hell this thing won't get retired. This could be a potentially historic storm for these poor Mexican citizens in the area, and I would not be shocked to see a thousand deaths (or more) once this huge storm passes through. I just shudder at the thought of how much destruction a C5 making landfall at that strength could do. We should get ready to see potentially massive damage/death figures by the time the storm is done. If you check out a post I made above, I was also really shocked to see a storm EI so much to record-breaking intensities. This storm could have been breaking Haiyan and even Tip's strength at its peak intensity. This is Mexico's Katrina, and oh man, this is one hell of a monster for those poor guys down there. [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] (Wanna Chat? • • ) 01:34, October 24, 2015 (UTC) ::::To think they were only expecting a C1/C2 at first is unbelievable. 100 mph difference between a minimal Category 2 and a very powerful 200 mph Category 5. I thought a 200 mph Category 5 would be something we would only see in the Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki, now we saw one in real life. Although Patricia has weakened considerably, I expect high damages and there is no doubt she will be off of the list in the spring. Owen 01:43, October 24, 2015 (UTC) Major Hurricane Patricia (2nd time) Patricia is now down to a category 4, but is still packing a punch. I am going to be praying for those in Mexico, because tonight is going to be a living hell for them. My question is how the f**k does this happen in the EPac of all places? If this was the WPac I could believe it more. Oh my God, I still can't believe this. I honestly feel like I'm dreaming, because this is a meteorological nightmare. leeboy100Boo! 04:02, October 24, 2015 (UTC) Hurricane Patricia (2nd time) Now it's weakened below major hurricane status, but the threat for inland flash flooding and mudslides is not over by any means. I can only imagine how some of the coastal cities and the ones in the mountains just northeast of the coast suffered from surge, winds, and flooding from this hurricane. Ryan1000 10:37, October 24, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Storm Patricia (2nd time) Possibly a day late. But Patricia is now a TS. [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] • [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'Talk']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|'Blog']] 12:45, October 24, 2015 (UTC) : No, that's actually the latest advisory, Patricia is now down to 50 mph. Initial reports suggest that coastal damage was not as bad as it was initialy feared, but I'm more concerned about the flash floods and mudslides this storm caused in Mexico's inland mountains. Ryan1000 13:15, October 24, 2015 (UTC) Ehh. I said POSSIBLY. [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] • [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'Talk']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|'Blog']] 17:01, October 24, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Depression Patricia Patricia continues to weaken over the mountains of Mexico. If damage wasn't as bad as feared, then maybe it has a slight chance of NOT getting retired... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:09, October 24, 2015 (UTC) :Bye Patricia... Nice tracking you. Glad that you did not wreak havoc Mexico that much, but sorry you should go, you're just so notable. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:33, October 24, 2015 (UTC) ::Eh...It might be. They probably are still studying the damage now, since it only struck yesterday, so they probably didn't see all of it yet... [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] • [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'Talk']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|'Blog']] 17:04, October 24, 2015 (UTC) ::Good riddance, Patricia. In my opinion, this thing needs 'to be retired, if it's not, I'll have a heart attack. leeboy100Boo! 17:28, October 24, 2015 (UTC) Remnants of Patricia Welp, goodbye! (a little early tho) [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle]] • [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'Talk']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|'Blog']] 19:42, October 24, 2015 (UTC) : Patricia could have been a large flooding disaster for Mexico, but luckily it didn't strike any really populated areas (such as Mexico City, for example). However, some areas (like La Manzanilla) could have been almost wiped off the face of the Earth, if not completely. I believe this was a historic storm that will be remembered for a while to come. I'd be shocked if it's not retired. Farewell, Patricia, the record-breaking powerful hurricane! [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] (Wanna Chat? • • ) 23:09, October 24, 2015 (UTC) ::: I guess Patricia will be getting it's own archive. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:28, October 25, 2015 (UTC) ::::Now crossed into the Gulf Of Mexico. [[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] • [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|'Talk']][[User_blog:PuffleXTREME|'Blog']] 20:58, October 25, 2015 (UTC) (That's another penny in the jar...for not signing) ::::::I'll give Patricia her own archive once all the U.S. flooding from her remnants is over with. Louisiana's getting the brunt of it right now. Ryan1000 03:41, October 26, 2015 (UTC) :::::::Hopefully Louisiana and surrounding areas don't receive destruction from these floods... Anyway, Patricia is completely gone, obviously, and it was one of the best storms ever, even though it did threaten land so much it scared all of us. Its extreme peak (200 mph) made us much more scared of a potential "Mexican Katrina" or "Mexican Frankenstorm". It is just great that Patricia spared densely populated areas; otherwise, it would have been catastrophic. [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] (Wanna Chat? • • ) 00:48, October 27, 2015 (UTC)